MoneyVision: Markets, the economy and crypto, in plain English

Hiring and pay beat expectations

A job gain well above 65,000 or pay growth above 0.3% would point to a firm labor market and sticky inflation, which could keep rate-hike talk alive.

• US 10-year yield▲Strong jobs usually lift Treasury yields as rate expectations rise.
• Dollar index▲Higher yields tend to firm the dollar.
• S&P 500↕Good growth news can clash with worries over higher rates.

Data close to forecasts

Job growth near 65,000, unemployment at 4.2% and pay up about 0.3% would leave the picture largely unchanged for the Fed.

• US 10-year yield↕Little surprise usually means small moves in yields.
• S&P 500↕Stocks would likely keep focusing on the tech selloff.

Hiring and pay fall short

A weak job gain, a higher jobless rate or soft pay growth would suggest a cooling labor market and ease some pressure on the Fed.

• US 10-year yield▼Weaker jobs usually pull Treasury yields lower.
• Dollar index▼Lower yields tend to soften the dollar.
• Gold▲Gold often benefits when yields and the dollar ease.

Inflation hotter than expected

Faster price growth would add to the case for keeping rates high or raising them, as some central banks have already done.

• US 10-year yield▲Hot inflation usually pushes yields higher on rate worries.
• Dollar index▲Higher rate expectations tend to support the dollar.
• Nasdaq▼Tech shares usually struggle when borrowing costs look set to rise.

Inflation in line with expectations

A reading that matches forecasts would leave Fed expectations mostly as they are.

• US 10-year yield↕Without a surprise, yields usually move little.
• S&P 500↕Stocks would likely follow tech and AI headlines instead.

Inflation cooler than expected

Slower price growth would ease pressure for tighter policy and could revive hopes for a calmer Fed.

• US 10-year yield▼Cooler inflation usually lowers yields.
• Dollar index▼Lower rate expectations tend to soften the dollar.
• S&P 500▲Stocks usually welcome easing rate pressure.

Fed raises rates

65%priced in futures

A hike would be the outcome futures currently favor. It would signal the Fed sees inflation as a larger risk than slower growth.

• US 10-year yield▲Rate hikes usually push Treasury yields higher.
• Dollar index▲Higher US rates tend to firm the dollar.
• Nasdaq▼Tech shares usually weaken when borrowing costs rise.

Fed holds rates steady

35%priced in futures

A hold would leave the rate unchanged. The message in the statement and press conference would decide how markets read it.

• US 10-year yield↕Yields would depend on whether the tone sounds firm or gentle.
• S&P 500↕Relief at no hike could offset worries about future ones.
• Bitcoin↕Crypto usually follows shifts in rate expectations and risk appetite.